Contribution LTV D90
$96
Revenue $157 · Gross profit $113
Growth analytics · Decision support
Scenario-Based Predictive LTV & Payback Calculator
Model revenue, contribution LTV, discounted value, CAC payback and required growth improvements through D180.
Recommended decision
Hold and optimize
CAC is recovered, but the selected growth targets are not reached.
Contribution LTV D180
$140
Discounted $137
Predicted payback
Day 135
Discounted: Day 139
LTV / CAC D180
1.17x
Target 3.0x
ROI D180
17%
D90 ROI -20%
D180 retention
36.0%
Cumulative churn 64.0%
Scenario contribution forecast
Cumulative contribution compared with the CAC threshold.
Targets and required improvements
Indicative requirements assuming all other inputs remain unchanged.
Maximum CAC for 3.0x LTV/CAC
$47
Based on D180 contribution LTV.
Maximum CAC for payback by D90
$96
Based on cumulative contribution by the selected day.
Required recurring revenue
$171
Current: $55
Required retention uplift
Not feasible
Applied to each retention checkpoint.
Combined maximum allowable CAC: $47. This is the stricter of the LTV/CAC and payback constraints.
Scenario comparison
Stress-test the economics before increasing acquisition spend.
Conservative
$122
Contribution LTV D180
LTV / CAC1.01x
PaybackDay 175
ROI D1801%
Base
$140
Contribution LTV D180
LTV / CAC1.17x
PaybackDay 135
ROI D18017%
Optimistic
$161
Contribution LTV D180
LTV / CAC1.34x
PaybackDay 109
ROI D18034%
Base scenario breakdown
Expected values per originally acquired customer.
| Period | Start retention | End retention | Avg. active | Revenue | Gross profit | One-time cost | Variable cost | Contribution | Discounted | Cumulative LTV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D30 | 100.0% | 78.0% | 89.0% | $85.00 | $61.20 | $4.00 | $5.34 | $51.86 | $51.46 | $51.86 |
| D60 | 78.0% | 64.0% | 71.0% | $39.05 | $28.12 | $0.00 | $4.26 | $23.86 | $23.49 | $75.72 |
| D90 | 64.0% | 54.0% | 59.0% | $32.45 | $23.36 | $0.00 | $3.54 | $19.82 | $19.36 | $95.54 |
| D120 | 54.0% | 47.0% | 50.5% | $27.78 | $20.00 | $0.00 | $3.03 | $16.97 | $16.44 | $112.51 |
| D150 | 47.0% | 41.5% | 44.3% | $24.34 | $17.52 | $0.00 | $2.66 | $14.87 | $14.30 | $127.38 |
| D180 | 41.5% | 36.0% | 38.7% | $21.31 | $15.34 | $0.00 | $2.32 | $13.02 | $12.42 | $140.40 |
AI Growth Analysis
Receive an executive interpretation of the model, risks, value drivers and recommended actions.
Methodology
Revenue
D0–D30 revenue is entered directly. Later revenue equals recurring revenue multiplied by average active share.
Contribution
Gross profit minus one-time customer cost and expected active-customer variable costs.
Discounted LTV
Each period contribution is discounted using an annual rate converted to a 30-day equivalent.
Reverse calculation
Numerical solvers estimate the minimum recurring revenue or retention uplift needed to reach both selected targets.
This is a deterministic scenario-based model, not a trained machine-learning forecast. Its outputs become stronger when assumptions are derived from actual cohort data.